The warning significance of this sentence is becoming more and more prominent with the latest tariff threats from US President-elect Trump.
"Due to the influx of illegal drugs such as narcotics", a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from China.
In order to solve the problems of illegal immigration and drugs, an additional 25% tariff will be imposed on goods from Mexico and Canada.
The matter of imposing tariffs on China can only be said to be "the boot on the head has finally fallen to the ground", and as for the reason for initiating it, "there is no shortage of excuses for accusing people of crimes".
This 10% was unexpected. After all, Trump has stated more than once during the campaign that he will not only cancel China's most-favored-nation status in trade, but also impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
On the contrary, the 25% tariff on Mexico and especially Canada is more unexpected.
After all, during Trump's first term, the United States signed the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, and before his second term began, he threatened to take action against these two neighboring countries.
As the world's number one economic power, the US market is of course important, which is why Trump can be willful. From the tariff war during Trump's first term, we can see that whoever is the largest trading partner of the United States is Trump's number one opponent.
But in the past few years, China is no longer the number one trading partner of the United States, but has reached the fourth place. The European Union, Mexico and Canada are the top three trading partners of the United States.
The three countries have a tax-free trade document, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, signed by Trump himself and effective in 2020, which promotes trilateral trade.
Data shows that in 2023, more than 83% of Mexico's exports will be sold to the United States, and more than 75% of Canada's exports will be sold to the United States, and foreign trade accounts for 60% of Canada's GDP.
In addition, Canada is the largest source of energy imports to the United States, and almost all of Canada's crude oil exports went to the United States in 2023.
If the United States imposes tariffs, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the economies of Mexico and Canada.
It is unclear how much Mexico and Canada will suffer, because it is not certain whether Trump will put his tariff threats into practice after taking office, nor is it certain about Trump's tariff exemption list, and it is not certain whether the 25% tariff is Trump's final number.
As Trump's tariff threats become more specific, both in terms of amount and the countries targeted, it shows that these are likely to be imminent actions, not just bluffing threats.
From this, it seems that Trump wants to fight the tariff war to the end, and completely use tariffs as a foreign policy "weapon" to realize his America First policy.
Trump treats any country that hinders the return of manufacturing to the United States equally.
Frankly speaking, China is the largest manufacturing country in the world today. my country has become a major trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions, and its total trade in goods ranks first in the world.
As long as the United States still wants to trade with some countries in the world, and these countries trade with China, there will definitely be re-export trade.
If the United States imposes tariffs on goods from all countries in the world, it will be a typical case of seclusion. The consequences can be found in history books.
On the contrary, under the common threat of Trump's tariff stick, the contacts and communications between China and important U.S. trading partners such as the EU, ASEAN, Japan and South Korea have increased significantly, and the space for each other to promote free trade has also expanded. Recently, there have been new developments including China-EU tariff negotiations on electric vehicles.
For Chinese companies, since the United States is trying to exclude China from its supply chain, we should seize the opportunity and work to globalize the supply chain to make it difficult for the United States to achieve comprehensive decoupling.
On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen trade cooperation with other countries and regions around the world and expand external market space.
It is still difficult to make clear which trade policies Trump will ultimately implement. There is a lot of uncertainty about the degree of impact on different industries and regions and the measures to be implemented in phases.
It is still necessary to pay close attention to the dynamic changes in Trump's trade policy and adjust response strategies in a timely manner to deal with possible trade turmoil.
